Xyoo 2024, nrog kev tso tawm sai sai ntawm N-hom kev tsim khoom muaj peev xwm thiab nce nrawm ntawm kev ua lag luam, cov qauv kev lag luam ntawm ntau yam thev naus laus zis tau hloov kho tas li, thiab TOPCon thev naus laus zis txoj hauv kev tau dhau los ua txoj hauv kev tsis sib haum xeeb.
Raws li TrendForce kev sab laj cov ntaub ntawv, nws xav tias thaum kawg ntawm 2024, lub peev xwm ntawm lub hnub ci yuav yog li ntawm 1417GW, thiab lub peev xwm ntawm N-hom hnub ci hlwb yuav yog li ntawm 1078GW, suav txog li 76%. N-hom era tau tuaj txog; Lub TOPCon roj teeb muaj peev xwm yog kwv yees li 941GW, suav txog kwv yees li 66.4%. N-hom thev naus laus zis txoj kev tswj hwm los ntawm TOPCon tab tom ua kom nws nthuav dav hauv kev ua lag luam. Nws cia siab tias los ntawm 2029, TOPCon roj teeb ntawm tes tso zis yuav suav txog ntau dua 84%, ua ntej ntawm lwm txoj kev siv tshuab.
1. Kev nthuav dav ruaj khov thiab tsaws, TOPCon kev ua lag luam txuas ntxiv
Nrog rau kev nrawm ntawm kev tsim khoom loj ntawm N-hom khoom, ntau yam kev sib txuas hauv kev lag luam saw tau ua cov txheej txheem tshiab nyob ib ncig ntawm kev tsaws ntawm N-hom kev tsim muaj peev xwm, thiab cov qauv ntawm kev xaiv technology yog qhov tseeb dua. TOPCon thev naus laus zis yuav txav mus rau txhua qhov chaw tsaws.
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Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Jibang Consulting, los ntawm lub sij hawm ntau lawm txhua hli nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2024, cov zis ntawm N-hom silicon wafers accounted rau txog 85% nyob rau hauv Lub rau hli ntuj, thiab zus tau tej cov P-hom silicon wafers yog heev txo. Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, raws li lub davhlau ya nyob twg xav tau tsis muaj zog, P-hom ntau lawm muaj peev xwm uas tsis muaj chaw rau upgraded thiab transformation yuav fim clearance (P upgrading thiab transformation rau TOPCon). Nws cia siab tias thaum kawg ntawm 2024, cov zis ntawm N-hom silicon wafers yuav suav txog li 75%. Nrog rau kev tso tawm sai sai ntawm N-hom roj teeb tsim muaj peev xwm, qhov tso zis feem ntawm N-hom silicon wafers kuj tseem yuav nce sai.
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Los ntawm qhov thib ob ib nrab ntawm 2023 mus rau thawj ib nrab ntawm 2024, TOPCon muaj peev xwm tsim tau ceev nws qhov kev tso tawm. Nrog rau kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab thiab kev txawj ntse ntawm TOPCon roj teeb thev naus laus zis los ntawm nruab nrab mus rau lig kawg cov tuam txhab roj teeb, cov teeb meem rau TOPCon roj teeb tsim tau yuav maj mam tshem tawm.
Raws li kev kwv yees ntawm Jibang Consulting, los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2024, lub peev xwm ntawm lub hnub ci yuav yog li ntawm 1417GW, ntawm cov uas muaj peev xwm ntawm N-hom hnub ci hlwb yuav yog li ntawm 1078GW, accounting txog li 76%; Ntawm lawv, TOPCon lub roj teeb muaj peev xwm yog txog 941GW, suav txog kwv yees li 66.4%. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws xav tias los ntawm 2029, TOPCon cov zis yuav suav txog ntau dua 84%, thiab TOPCon yuav nyob twj ywm N-hom thev naus laus zis nyob rau hauv 5- xyoo voj voog.
Cheeb Tsam Cheeb Tsam: Cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj lees paub qhov kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua hauv Terminal Demand
Tom qab qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam yog qhov nce ntxiv ntawm qhov kev thov davhlau ya nyob twg. Raws li qhov kev thov davhlau ya nyob twg raug ncaws tawm, qhov feem ntawm N-hom Cheebtsam yuav nce sai.
Raws li kev txheeb cais tsis tiav los ntawm Jibang Consulting, lub peev xwm sib tw rau kev muab khoom nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom siv los ntawm cov lag luam hauv nruab nrab hauv xeev hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2024 yog txog 108GW, ntawm 90.3GW yog N-hom Cheebtsam, suav txog li 84%. Qhov nkag mus tau nrawm dua thiab tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb. Thiab tus nqi ntawm PERC cov khoom tseem nyob ntawm ib ncig ntawm 0.05 yuan / W, qhia txog qhov txiaj ntsig zoo.
2. Tsom ntsoov rau kev txo nqi thiab kev txhim kho kev ua haujlwm, tshawb nrhiav qhov ua tau tsis kawg
Kev txhim kho tam sim no ntawm TOPCon thev naus laus zis muaj ob yam tseem ceeb: nce kev ua haujlwm zoo; Tus nqi qis dua thiab qis dua. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Jibang Consulting, NP tus nqi sib txawv tseem nyob ib ncig ntawm 0.05 yuan/W nyob rau lub Rau Hli. Qhov nqaim ntawm tus nqi sib txawv nyob ntawm ntau qhov kev txhawb nqa thiab kev siv thev naus laus zis, khoom siv, thiab kev siv. Txhawm rau ua tiav lub hom phiaj no, "ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig thiab txo cov nqi" tau dhau los ua tus yuam sij. Nrog rau kev ua kom tob zuj zus ntawm kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis, los ntawm kev xav ntawm kev ua tiav kev lag luam ntawm tus nqi qis, TOPCon tseem yuav muaj qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws hauv 5 xyoo tom ntej.
Technological evolution muab txoj hauv kev tshiab rau kev txo nqi thiab kev txhim kho kev ua haujlwm
Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, TOPCon tseem yog txoj kev siv thev naus laus zis zoo tshaj plaws. Kev txhim kho txuas ntxiv ntawm photovoltaic thev naus laus zis yuav tsum muaj qhov kev xav tsis tu ncua ntawm "ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig, txo tus nqi, thiab nce kev ntseeg tau". Txawm hais tias nyob rau hauv lub forefront ntawm kev vam meej ntawm ntau yam technologies, TOPCon tseem yog tus nqi-zoo tshaj technology txoj kev tam sim no.
Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev, lub hom phiaj ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kev txo nqi thiab kev txhim kho kev ua tau zoo yuav ua rau kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis, thiab kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis tom ntej yuav ua tiav qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm ntau yam thev naus laus zis, cov khoom siv txo qis, kev ua haujlwm zoo dua, thiab txo tus nqi ntxiv ntawm lub hom phiaj no, nrog kev loj heev. muaj peev xwm rau yav tom ntej.
Nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm TOPCon lub peev xwm nthuav dav lub voj voog, TOPCon thev naus laus zis yuav ua tiav cov nqi txo thiab kev txhim kho kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev nrawm dua. Los ntawm 2024 txog 2026, TOPCon roj teeb thev naus laus zis yuav nkag mus rau 2.0 era, thiab TOPCon roj teeb yuav nkag mus rau ib puag ncig tshiab ntawm kev siv thev naus laus zis. Cov technologies ntawm pem hauv ntej boron diffusion, rov qab polycrystalline silicon txheej optimization, pem hauv ntej kev sib cuag (LECO), ntug PET, thiab lwm yam yog accelerating lawv cov kev taw qhia. Nws tau cia siab tias nrog kev loj hlob loj ntawm ob sab Poly thev naus laus zis, TOPCon 2.0 era yuav nkag mus rau 3.0 lifecycle. Xav txog qhov kev hloov pauv tau zoo ntawm TOPCon roj teeb thev naus laus zis thiab kev sib koom ua ke ntawm ntau yam thev naus laus zis thiab cov ntaub ntawv, TOPCon stacking yuav ua tiav cov txheej txheem thev naus laus zis thiab qhib qhov muaj peev xwm tshiab.
Lub neej yav tom ntej yog nyob ntawm no, thiab cov txheej txheem ntawm cov tuam txhab sab saum toj ua rau kev lag luam mus tom ntej
TOPCon, raws li N-hom tshuab, muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev sib raug zoo nrog PERC ntau lawm thiab txheej txheem. Thaum lub sij hawm iteration lub sij hawm ntawm P-to-N-hom tshuab, ua lag luam khov kho xaiv thiab sai nteg tawm.
Tam sim no, cov tuam txhab xws li JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., Ltd., JA Solar, Trina Solar, Chint Tshiab Zog, thiab Jietai tau ua tiav cov khoom loj ntawm N-hom TOPCon roj teeb. Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, ntau txoj haujlwm uas suav nrog TOPCon tau pib lossis kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus, thiab cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tau nce lawv cov peev txheej, ua kom pom kev ntseeg siab hauv cov khoom lag luam TOPCon.
Cov tuam txhab roj teeb saum toj kawg nkaus, vam khom rau lawv cov thev naus laus zis, txheej txheem, thiab ntsuas qhov zoo, feem ntau muaj cov nqi tsim khoom ntau dua li nruab nrab mus rau lig kawg cov tuam txhab, thiab lawv cov peev txheej ntau lawm yuav txuas ntxiv mus. Tawm tsam keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam saw nqi, kev lag luam kev sib koom ua ke nrog cov txiaj ntsig zoo dua, cov txiaj ntsig siab, thiab tus nqi qis TOPCon muaj peev xwm tsim tau cov txiaj ntsig ntau dua.
Cov ntsiab lus:
Saib rov qab los ntawm txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam, nws tuaj yeem pom tias kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis tau ua raws li kev ua lag luam daim ntawv thov, uas yog lub hauv paus rau kev tswj hwm kev noj qab haus huv ntawm kev lag luam, txhawb kev sib txawv ntawm daim ntawv thov scenarios, thiab txuas ntxiv txhawb kev loj hlob ntsuab thiab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo. ntawm kev lag luam. Yog tias qhov kev thov tau tsav kev loj hlob sai ntawm TOPCon cov khoom lag luam hauv xyoo 2024, tom qab ntawd nrog kev hloov pauv ntawm ntau yam thev naus laus zis thiab kev hloov pauv tas mus li ntawm ntau lub lag luam thiab kev xaiv ntawm kev lag luam kev taw qhia, TOPCon thev naus laus zis tseem muaj peev xwm loj hauv tsib xyoos mus txog 2029. Lwm yam N-hom thev naus laus zis, xws li BC, vim lawv cov txheej txheem nyuaj, tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg los ntawm cov yam ntxwv ntawm cov roj teeb, thiab kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo xws li qis dua ob sab uas ua rau txo qis hauv lub zog tsim hluav taws xob ib watt, tsis tuaj yeem ua lub hauv paus thiab tsuas yog ua tau. siv rau hauv qee lub lag luam niche, nrog rau qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam ntawm ib ncig ntawm 10%. Hauv 5 xyoos, TOPCon yuav tsim nyog dua li cov roj teeb hauv qab rau cov roj teeb sib xyaw, thiab TOPCon + perovskite stacked roj teeb thev naus laus zis yuav txuas ntxiv ua kom muaj zog.